Sunday, August 13, 2006

The Cease Fire That Wasn't

Arab mothers are naming their children after Nasrallah, the Lebanese cabinet is in disarray, and Hezbollah's own politburo opposes Nasrallah's acceptance of a cease fire. The rocket fire into Israel from the illegal, private army of south Lebanon won't be stopping any time soon.

It's around 7:00 am in Israel and Lebanon, and Israel at least is still planning to uphold the cease fire. The first Katyusha that flies into Israel calls the deal off.

UPDATE 1:20 am CDT: The cease fire has been in effect successfully for a couple of hours now, but I still say it's doomed. Hezbollah vows to keep fighting as long as Israel is within Lebanon, but Israel, under no legal obligation to withdraw, prefers to wait until the Lebanese army is deployed to replace them.

The U.N. resolution calls for 15,000 foreign troops and 15,000 Lebanese soldiers to be deployed in southern Lebanon.

The European Union's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, meeting with Israeli officials in Jerusalem, said that at least 4,000 foreign troops could be ready to move into southern Lebanon "in a very, very short time," but he declined to pinpoint a timetable.

I predict that won't be soon enough for Nasrallah. I expect a rocket strike by the end of the day in Israel.

UPDATE: It's the end of the day in Israel, and no rockets. A handful of Hezbollah died testing the limits of the meaning of self-defense, but the cease fire holds. This is why I don't gamble.


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1 comment:

Gavriel said...

They did actually launch Katyushas, but they had the sense (at least for now) not to laungh them across the border, using them against internal targets instead. But if you remember how terrorists work, they always keep one foot right up against the line, constantly pushing the line a little further, always daring you to care about just that one little toe that's over, but within a week, the line will have moved enough to cross the border. Of course, I don't gamble either.